NBA best bets: Expert picks for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 6 for Thu. 5/16

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Thursday, May 16, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Nuggets Moneyline +112 (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

This is just backing the better team to close out a series. I'm content with betting the Nuggets in Games 6 and 7, if necessary, because I believe they're going to win the series and become two-time champions if healthy.

The Nuggets have solved the Timberwolves defense, and Nikola Jokic is back to being the best player in the world. Yes, the Nuggets are shooting out of their minds, but the bigger issue is that Minnesota isn't shooting well and might not have a pathway to correct that.

The Jamal Murray game hasn’t happened yet, and the Nuggets might not need one, but ultimately, they have more answers than the Timberwolves do — and we weren't saying that after two games.

If the Wolves win at home tonight, Game 7 is a Nuggets hammer spot. However, if I think a team is going to win the title after this series, why would I not take the opportunity to bet them at plus money?

Pick: Nuggets Moneyline +112

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Thursday, May 16, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Denver to Lead at the End of Every Quarter +350 (FanDuel)

By Maltman

Game 2 was a disaster for the Nuggets when they lost by 26 points as 7.5-point favorites, and it looked like the series was over. As we all know, the opposite has happened, as Denver has roared back to a 3-2 lead. Over that time frame, each of the last 12 quarters has ended with Denver in the lead.

In Games 3 and 4 in Minnesota, the Nuggets were underdogs at +3.5 on the spread and won both times after grabbing the lead early and not holding back. Minnesota has been unable to hold Denver's offense down, and with Mike Conley Jr. likely out or hobbled, there is almost no way Minnesota can keep up.

This number is too long for something that has happened in three straight games. This series isn't like the Lakers series, where the Nuggets didn't take it seriously. The Lakers won Game 4 of that series, but the consequences for the Nuggets were small: one more game on their home floor.

Here, the consequences are larger, and I expect Denver to come through in a big way.

Betting Denver to be winning at the end of every quarter at +350 for .3 units on FanDuel (would bet down to +250).

Pick: Denver to Lead at the End of Every Quarter +350

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Thursday, May 16, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Christian Braun Over 9.5 Points + Rebounds (-115, FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Nuggets have made a significant adjustment to their rotations, and Christian Braun’s playing time has increased. His quickness and physicality have been useful on defense, and he can at least make Anthony Edwards’ life a little bit more difficult on that end.

Offensively, he is a spark plug who can cut, grab offensive boards and even spot up from 3. This skill set has allowed him to remain on the floor because he is not an offensive liability.

His minutes have risen throughout the series, and in Games 4 and 5, he played 25 and 28 minutes.

When Braun has played 20+ minutes this season, he has exceeded this line in 74% of games while averaging 14.1 points plus rebounds (PR). If he plays 25+ minutes, this jumps to 89% with an average of 16.4 PR.

After strong performances in Games 4 and 5, I expect Braun to see extended run once again in Game 6 as he has closed games ahead of Michael Porter Jr. I like him to exceed 9.5 PR.

Pick: Christian Braun Over 9.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)